Oscars 2022: Picks and Predictions
The Oscars are Sunday night. Here's what will win (and what should).
I’m no awards blogger but because I spend so much time anticipating the Oscars, I’ve made it a tradition to publish my picks and predictions in every category the week leading up to the show. This year has been different, as I’ve wondered whether or not Sunday night’s ceremony would even be worth watching live. The lead-up to the Oscars has been something of a mess this year, as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), made some questionable decisions regarding the televised event, which has rightfully earned them a lot of flack.
With all of this in mind, there’s still a lot to be excited about—namely, the actual nominees. Best Picture became a two-horse race at the last minute. Best Actress continues to be difficult to predict. And no one seems to know what’s happening in Original or Adapted Screenplay. So, I decided to break down all 23 categories leading up to Hollywood’s biggest night. Here’s what I think will win, and what I hope to be proven wrong about.
Best Picture
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Who Will Win: CODA
For the first time in a long time, the Best Picture race is looking like a real nail-biter. All year long, this award seemed to be The Power of the Dog’s to lose, with the movie sweeping Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay at early awards circuits. Though it’s not the typical crowd-pleasing spectacle that often wins Best Picture, the slow western falls somewhat in line with a certain type of period epic that used to fare well in this category. Helmed by and starring previous nominees Jane Campion and Benedict Cumberbatch respectively, also seemed to favor the critical darling.
Then it began to loose its grip across categories, with Kodi Smit-McPhee losing his Supporting Actor frontrunner status to CODA’s Troy Kotsur, and Adapted Screenplay becoming a two-horse race between both films. Power also failed to secure a nomination in SAG’s ensemble category—a major Best Picture precursor, which CODA won. But the biggest blow came over the weekend, where it lost the PGA award—quite possibly the most accurate Best Picture prognosticator—to the Sundance dramedy.
Although it could go either way, I’m leaning towards CODA. Aside from the last-minute surge, insiders have reported that Academy members appear to be more split on Power than we were initially led to believe. While one could argue that CODA would have to break a great many stats to win this award, these have become less and less reliable over the years as The Academy continues to diversify. And yet, CODA is still safe, feel-good and within their tastes.
Who Should Win: Drive My Car
Although I enjoyed both frontrunners just fine, I can’t say they’re my preferred picks, as quite a few of their competitors made a bigger impression on me. For one, I was thrilled when my favorite film of 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car, received several “above the line” nominations, including Best Picture. The three-hour drama is impressive on all fronts, its sprawling dialogue, hefty performances and scenic shots of Hiroshima making it as stately as it is soul-stirring.
Read more about Drive My Car here.
Directing
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Who Will Win: Jane Campion
Jane Campion is gonna win this award with or without Best Picture. Although she’s in great company, no one has proven to be a threat to her this awards season and it’ll stay that way on Oscar night. When there are two Best Picture frontrunners, The Academy will often spread the love, awarding what’s presumably in second-place with a director or screenplay nod. In Campion’s case, screenplay is debatable. Director isn’t.
Who Should Win: Steven Spielberg
I’ve given my thoughts on the new West Side Story and how the film feels like a return to form for its director. As one of the year’s biggest spectacles, Steven Spielberg’s vibrant remake of the 1961 musical is an explosion of color, movement and pathos that some critics have even called an upgrade over the original. It’s a technical achievement in every sense, and proof that six decades into his career, Spielberg still masters control over every craft.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Who Will Win: Will Smith
Will Smith has been bodying his competition all season long, collecting statues at the SAG, BAFTAs, Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards. Aside from giving one of the best performances of his career in King Richard, the charismatic actor also has a “long overdue” narrative, which often helps (see: Julianne Moore winning for Still Alice in 2015). Although he’s been in the acting game for over three decades now and starred in a variety of memorable films and television shows, this is his first Oscar nomination.
Who Should Win: Denzel Washington
It’s a close call, because I genuinely loved Smith in the sports biopic. As arguably the best actor of his generation though, Denzel Washington absolutely knocked it out of the park as Macbeth in Joel Coen’s Shakespeare adaptation, capturing the character’s descent into madness palpably while delivering some of the Bard’s most challenging proses. I hope to see him win a third Oscar one day, and this is as good a reason as any.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Best Actress had a strange run this year, with no clear frontrunner up until Jessica Chastain won the SAG and Critics Choice awards. Lots of people are still saying that anything can happen—in fact, many are predicting Penélope Cruz now that the anonymous ballots have been released and she seems to be leading by a wide margin. I’m sticking to Chastain because she gave a showy, transformative performance in a biopic practically made to win trophies. Or maybe I just don’t want to get my hopes up and wind up disappointed when Cruz loses to her.
Who Should Win: Penélope Cruz
I was admittedly impressed by Chastain’s performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, where she carried the movie by being hilarious and heartbreaking in equal parts. Still, Penélope Cruz and Olivia Colman are the easy standouts among the group—at least to me. Cruz in particular gave one of the year’s best performances and showed the most range amongst her competition. In a just world she’d be poised to win.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur
This may have been a two-horse race earlier in the season when The Power of the Dog’s Kodi Smit-McPhee won the Golden Globe. But CODA’s Troy Kotsur has won every major precursor since then and looks set to win the Oscar too. It’s certainly a heartrending performance, and a showier one than Smit-McPhee’s. Besides, the Academy tends to favor older male actors to their younger counterparts.
Who Should Win: Troy Kotsur
Kotsur gave my favorite male supporting performance of 2021, so I was more than happy to see him receive an Oscar nomination, and even happier to see him become the dark horse this awards season. He’s easily the best thing about the warm and heartfelt CODA, and can be credited for the film’s most moving scene.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose
Like Will Smith, Ariana DeBose has been sweeping the floor with her competition all season long, gathering the SAG, BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice and everything in between. When she wins big on Sunday, she’ll become the second Latina to win an Oscar in any acting category, six decades after Rita Moreno won for the same role in 1962.
Who Should Win: Ariana DeBose
I’m very happy with the winning prospects of the frontrunners in both supporting categories. DeBose had perhaps the most challenging role among her fellow nominees in a physical performance that also happens to be the emotional core of her movie. While it’s unfortunate that the only other Latina who won this award did so for playing the same character, I think this speaks to Anita’s power as the thematic embodiment of West Side Story, with DeBose’s afro-Latina heritage providing a much-needed update from Moreno’s incarnation.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog
Who Will Win: CODA
Both of the screenplay races appear to be very tight this time around. Although it seemed like The Power of the Dog would strike gold earlier this year, CODA beat it at the BAFTAs, and being in two languages (English and ASL), might help it here.
My biggest reason for predicting CODA for Adapted Screenplay is this: most films that take home Best Picture also take home Best Director and/or Screenplay. Helming this fun yet technically unambitious comfort flick didn’t land Sian Heder a directing nom, but she could very well take this award home amid CODA’s late surge in support.
Who Should Win: Drive My Car
Adapted from a series of short stories from Haruki Murakami’s Men Without Women collection, Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe’s screenplay is precisely what makes Drive My Car so absorbing, even at three hours. While the sprawling monologues and conversational dialogue are reason enough to award the the film’s writing, the implications behind words left unspoken by the characters hit just as hard. I can’t think of a more deserving contender than this one.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Worst Person in the World
Who Will Win: Belfast
This is a tough one. Although Licorice Pizza appears to have been the early frontrunner in this category, several late-season losses to Belfast and what appears to be pushback from a substantial amount of voters have me thinking that’s not happening anymore. While Paul Thomas Anderson may have the “long overdue” narrative working in his favor, you could argue the same for Kenneth Branagh, who has been nominated eight times in different categories and has yet to win. Then there’s Don’t Look Up, another divisive film penned by Oscars favorite Adam McKay. It may not be the frontrunner, but if it chips away enough of Licorice Pizza’s votes the race becomes Branagh’s to lose.
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza
Another favorite of mine, Licorice Pizza is the kind of bonkers movie you love to see recognized for its writing. Rather than making this a by-the-numbers coming-of-age flick, PTA decided to swing for the fences, deliberately crafting an embellished portrait of American life during the 1970s. It’s endlessly quotable, too.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells VS. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
Who Will Win: Encanto
By process of elimination, Disney’s Encanto and the Danish animated documentary Flee are the only two films in this group to be nominated in two outside categories. While some are predicting a Mitchells VS. the Machines upset here, I don’t see this happening at all, considering Encanto’s performance throughout the season and the Academy’s bias towards Disney. Its nominations in the two musical categories mean voters also admired its technical craft, which helps.
Who Should Win: Flee
As someone who really loves Encanto, it still feels wrong to choose anything other than Flee. Although the former is a visual treat and a testament to how far Disney’s character designs have come under CG animation, Flee made me emotional in ways no other film in this category did. In light of Ukraine’s refugee crisis adding to so many more around the globe, this story of a gay man from Afghanistan being forced to shed his identity after defecting to Denmark is also timely.
Cinematography
Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
Who Will Win: The Power of the Dog
There isn’t a better crop of nominees this year and with no clear horizon, this could go any which way. Many are predicting Dune but with that movie being the frontrunner in so many categories, I have a feeling something else will win in its place here. Considering The Power of the Dog’s lock for directing, I wouldn’t be surprised if it took home another major technical award, even if the other nominees are more impressive.
Sidenote: although the Academy loves awarding black and white films here, I’m not going with The Tragedy of Macbeth because it was under-nominated and hasn’t performed that well leading up to Sunday night’s ceremony. If I end up underestimating the gimmick like I did last year, I’m never betting against black and white again.
Who Should Win: West Side Story
Though I probably would’ve traded The Power of the Dog for Passing or Spencer, the cinematography category is probably the most stacked this time around, with many of my personal faves making the list. If it were up to me though, I’d probably award Janusz Kamiński’s work on West Side Story over anything else; serving the best-looking musical of 2021, the camerawork is both utilitarian and stately. Truly worth seeing on the big screen.
Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
Who Will Win: Cruella
This should be easy; Cruella triumphed at all the major precursors. The only way I can see the film losing is if the Academy decides to award a Best Picture nominee here, but those haven’t proven to be much of a threat to the Disney prequel thus far.
Who Should Win: Cruella
Call me a Cruella apologist—I enjoyed this movie and loved the costumes in it. We’ve seen the sci-fi suits and habitual period gowns before, but the costumes in Cruella are a wonderful throwback to the 1970s London punk scene, with an added touch of whimsy. Simply put, Jenny Beaven’s work here produced some of the most original, memorable and varied designs out of any film last year.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul (...or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), Writing With Fire
Who Will Win: Summer of Soul (...or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
This has been a one-horse race ever since the perceived frontrunner, The Rescue, got snubbed on Oscar nomination morning. Since then, Questlove’s riveting documentary about the Harlem Cultural Festival of 1969 has swept all season-long, scoring at every guild, critics circle and awards body that matters. It’s easy to see why. I’ve said this before, but The Academy tends to go either for spectacle or social/political relevance here. As a vibrant, energetic concert film and a lesson on America’s tendency to bury historic cultural contributions made by non-white folks, Summer of Soul has both.
Who Should Win: Summer of Soul (...or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
I’m admittedly a little bit behind on the documentaries this year, but if you took a look at my Favorite Films of 2021 listicle, you may recall Summer of Soul being there. That’s because it’s incredible—a colorful and soul-stirring, toe-tapping celebration of Black joy and music that had no business being swept under the rug for so long. With this in mind, I’d be more than happy to see the movie win big on Oscar night.
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies
Who Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Although I wouldn’t be surprised if the documentary short award went to Netflix’s Audible, a moving sports drama about a deaf high school’s football team, I’m feeling peer pressured into predicting The Queen of Basketball. It’s certainly the best non-fiction short out of everything I’ve seen thus far, and the fair treatment of women in sports is a hot-button issue.
Who Should Win: The Queen of Basketball
So far, I’ve seen every short film nominated in this category except When We Were Bullies, which doesn’t seem to be available to stream or rent online. While I really liked the three Netflix entries, they approached their subject matter from a broader perspective and therefore lacked focus, in my opinion. The Queen of Basketball was riveting and well-crafted, with rhythmic editing, a great score and an immensely charismatic subject to boot.
Film Editing
Nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!
Who Will Win: Dune
It’s a well-known fact that Academy members will often conflate “best editing” with “most editing,” which is why you might see others predicting Don’t Look Up, tick, tick…BOOM! or even King Richard this year. But the editing category often favors action spectacles as well, and as a major contender in the technical races, Dune seems to have a leg up over its competition here. Editing is also paired up with the sound award quite often, so you can expect the sci-fi blockbuster to take home both.
Who Should Win: Dune
Like West Side Story, Dune is a major technical accomplishment, which is why its possible sweep in these “below the line” categories would be well-deserved. As something of a slow burn, editing was essential to the pacing and rhythm of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic which never fails to enthrall during its 2h35m runtime.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, Lunana: A Yak In the Classroom, The Worst Person in the World
Who Will Win: Drive My Car
Best International Feature is typically easy to predict, and this year’s frontrunner is the only one to have been nominated in three additional categories, which shows how much the Academy loves it. Though the phenomenal Flee and The Worst Person in the World also have lots of passion behind them, it would be a joke to expect anything else at this point.
Who Should Win: Drive My Car
What did you think I was going to say?
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Coming 2 America, Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
Who Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Considering Chastain’s transformative role, The Eyes of Tammy Faye seems poised to score an acting/makeup combo á la Monster (2003) and Dallas Buyers Club (2011). Though it may not be my personal choice, a Makeup & Hairstyling win certainly wouldn't be unwarranted; both Chastain and Andrew Garfield at least partially owe their strong performances here to the team tasked with making them look the part.
Who Should Win: Cruella
All of the nominees this year are impressive on some level. Though the actors in Cruella may not sport heavy prosthetics like those in House of Gucci, The Eyes of Tammy Faye or Coming 2 America, Cruella may just boast the most creative looks of any film in this category.
Music (Original Score)
Nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Encanto, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog
Who Will Win: Dune
Hans Zimmer’s much-lauded work on Dune will likely win him his second Oscar on Sunday. He’s already been honored at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and multiple critics associations this year, so a win from anyone else—including runner-up Johnny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)—seems unlikely.
Who Should Win: Parallel Mothers
Though I’m not opposed to Dune winning here, Parallel Mothers’ classical score is too exquisite to ignore. While it’s important to consider the mixing of these compositions into their respective films, I think judging each piece of music on its own merits is just as important. As it stands, Alberto Iglesias’ score is the only one I’d actually listen to with headphones on.
Music (Original Song)
Nominees: “Be Alive” (King Richard), “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto), “Down to Joy” (Belfast) “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die), “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)
Who Will Win: “No Time to Die”
If there are two things the Oscars like, it’s Disney musicals and 007 themes. But with Disney failing to submit the most popular song from Encanto’s soundtrack and instead going with the Spanish-language lullaby “Dos Oruguitas,” it looks like songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda won’t be receiving the final letter to his coveted “EGOT” this year. That leaves Billie Eilish’s brooding theme song from No Time To Die, Daniel Craig’s final outing as James Bond.
While I initially worried that the song may not have enough staying power as it was released back in 2020 when the film was originally supposed to premiere, it doesn't look like that’s gotten in its way at all as Eilish continues to demolish her competition leading up to the Oscars. I’ve considered a “Be Alive” upset, seeing how Beyoncé remains a much-respected industry figure, but the same could be said for Eilish who has sung at the ceremony before and whose doc was shortlisted for the Documentary Feature category this year. It’s clear that the Academy loves her.
Who Should Win: “Dos Oruguitas”
While it may not have been the most popular song on the Encanto soundtrack, “Dos Oruguitas” is still a tender and beautiful ballad that deserved its nomination. Filled with adorable imagery and weighty subtext, it also sets the tone for one of the film’s most emotional scene, which never fails to give me chills.
Production Design
Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
Who Will Win: Nightmare Alley
Call me crazy, but I just can’t bring myself to predict Dune here, even after it won at other major awards bodies. In recent years, the Academy has made a habit out of spreading the love across categories, and I can’t imagine seeing more than two Best Picture nominees win zilch on Oscar night (two already seems weird). Considering its impressive craftsmanship, Nightmare Alley is going to have to win something.
Who Should Win: Nightmare Alley
This noir thriller from former Oscar winner Guillermo Del Toro is pure eye candy, thanks in part to its varied, elaborate sets. Much like 2006’s Pan’s Labyrinth and 2017’s The Shape of Water (both of which won this award in their respective years), the intricate, ostentatious production design of Nightmare Alley is essential to the film’s atmosphere, and more than deserving of recognition.
Short Film (Animated)
Nominees: Affairs of the Art, Bestia, Boxballet, Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper
Who Will Win: Robin Robin
When it comes to Best Animated Short, the Academy either likes a strong social or political message á la If Anything Happens I love You (2020), or a cutesy, animal-related comfort flick, á la Feast (2014). While Bestia is quite staggering in its portrayal of Chile’s military dictatorship, the Oscars are pretty insular and will probably end up going with lighter fare this time around. Enter the delightful and intricately designed Robin Robin, which many members will find easy to access on Netflix.
Who Should Win: Robin Robin or Bestia
This year’s animated shorts are so good, I can’t choose a single winner. Bestia is a deeply disturbing thriller about Ingrid Olderock, a notorious agent of the country’s Secret Police who committed hideous human rights abuses under Pinochet’s rule. The other is an adorable, expertly crafted musical about a bird who gets adopted by a family of mice but has trouble fitting in. Both are incredible feats in stop-motion animation and deserve to be recognized.
Short Film (Live-Action)
Nominees: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold
Who Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Though it’s set in England, The Long Goodbye is more than relevant to the United States, given our own immigration issues which include brutal home invasions and family separation at the hands of law enforcement—both of which are depicted in the film. This is likely to touch voters, who tend to go for timely subject matter in the short categories.
Who Should Win: The Long Goodbye…?
I don’t quite feel equipped to make a decision here since The Long Goodbye and Please Hold were the only two live-action shorts available to me. Between them, The Long Goodbye is easily the most compelling film—a harrowing depiction of the abuses immigrants in “first-world” countries face at the hands of government and law enforcement.
Sound
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog, No Time to Die, West Side Story
Who Will Win: Dune
I could see either Dune or West Side Story snatching the sound award, as the Academy loves rewarding the action and musical genres here. Though I predict Dune will lose in at least one of the categories it’s expected to win in, it feels weird not to predict it in all the technicals.
Who Should Win: West Side Story
Again, I’d be happy with Dune or West Side Story, but I give the latter the nudge because watching it in theaters was one of the greatest moviegoing experiences I had in 2021. Unlike so many modern musicals in which the lyrics feel muddled amongst the sounds and movement, the audio in West Side Story was refreshingly crisp.
Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home
Who Will Win: Dune
One of the most predicable races this year, Dune is poised to win the visual effects award after slaughtering its competition all season-long. I can’t see who would disagree with this decision, either; it was one of the biggest cinematic events of 2021 and its effects were unmatched.
Who Should Win: Dune
Again, no competition. From the massive sandworm to the droplets of sweat on Muad’Dib’s giant ears, Dune’s environments and creatures were essential to the film’s world building, which felt immersive and novel at a time when most blockbusters lack originality.