Oscars 2021: Picks And Predictions
The Oscars are just around the corner. Here's what will win (and what should).
As someone with small goals and simple hobbies, Oscar night is something I look forward to all year long. I take great pride in playing the guessing game and being right most of the time. Last year, I predicted all but two of the wins—not counting the short film categories. This time, I plan to do better.
The 93rd Academy Awards will take place on April 25 at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET. As they say in Nomadland, I’ll see you down the road.
Here are my predictions for all 23 categories, as well as my personal preferences.
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Will Win: Nomadland
In regular years, this quiet, meditative character study from director Chloé Zhao wouldn’t have stood a chance against bigger, studio-driven “Oscar bait.” After a year full of limbos and pushbacks however, awards season has been more indie-dominated than ever before—and Nomadland swept everywhere including the PGAs, making this a guaranteed win. If that wasn’t enough, this category’s known bias against streaming services also discards Nomadland’s two biggest competitors entirely.
Who Should Win: Nomadland
This is the first time in a while that I’m genuinely excited about a Best Picture frontrunner’s winning prospects. Nomadland is the true story of modern-day nomads, told through the vessel of a made up character (played by Frances McDormand). Whether you consider it a 2020 or 2021 release, it’s by far the best eligible film to come out in either year. The sense of catharsis and warmth that comes with the film’s ending clearly wasn’t lost on members of the awards bodies Nomadland has torn through.
Directing
Nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Emerald Fennel (Promising Young Woman)
Who Will Win: Chloé Zhao
Just as Nomadland’s Best Picture win seems set in stone, Zhao is expected to take home the directing Oscar after making one of the year’s most acclaimed films. When she does, she’ll be the first woman of color (and second woman overall), to nab that award. In light of a recent string of hate crimes against Asian Americans, this historic win will surely dominate much of the Oscar discussion.
Who Should Win: Chloé Zhao
Despite being nothing short of a technical feat, Nomadland is the type of movie whose indrawn tone may result in people forgetting its sweeping scale. Zhao’s commitment to naturalism shines in how she’s able to pull astounding performances out of non-actors—and also from McDormand herself, who never feels distracting in the lead role. No director is more deserving this year, and I say that as the world’s biggest Fincher fan.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
It’s hard to say whether the Academy would feel the same way about this performance if the late actor was still alive. Regardless, it’s been said for months now that Chadwick Boseman’s career will be honored with this Best Actor win—and deservedly so. While it’s true that Anthony Hopkins’ recent BAFTA upset may have shaken things up, but I don’t see that happening again on Oscar night.
Who Should Win: Anthony Hopkins
As said, Boseman deserves acclaim for his career-best performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. But so does Anthony Hopkins in The Father. This year’s Best Actor race is one of the most grueling, with plenty of great contenders as well as notable snubs. I give Hopkins the slight edge for getting the biggest emotional reaction out of me. His last monologue was absolutely devastating.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holliday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Experts seem torn between Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan, and I’m betting on the former. For better or worse, the Academy likes a showy performance, which gives Davis some edge. It’s also no secret that between her BAFTA snub and the SAG and Golden Globe losses, Mulligan has been losing some momentum. In fact, Davis took home the coveted SAG award, which has been highly predictive of Oscar winners in recent years.
Only one Black woman has won Best Actress in the whopping 93 years this award has existed. Needless to say, it’s time for a change.
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand
It pains me not to go with Davis, because as one of my all-time favorite actresses, she really was astounding in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. I’m just not sure I’d consider her the lead in that movie. Regardless, Frances McDormand gave the greatest performance of the last year and four months—bar none. And something tells me her two previous wins are a big reason she isn’t even the runner-up, even if this was her career-best.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night In Miami…), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Of all the acting races, this is the clearest. Kaluuya has won all major awards leading up to the Oscars, including SAG, BAFTA, Critic’s Choice and the Golden Globe. When his powerhouse performance as Fred Hampton lands him the gold statue on Oscar night, it’ll be well-deserved.
Who Should Win: Paul Raci
When I said Frances McDormand gave the best performance in the last year, bar none—I meant “bar none, except Paul Raci.” Through his weathered face and eyes alone, Raci succeeded in conveying more emotional layers than some actors do in their entire lifetime. But of course, he is considered the underdog in this race and Sound of Metal fans are going to have to stay content with the surprise nomination.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Who Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung
This was considered a three-horse race for the longest time, with Bakalova scoring a Critic’s Choice and Colman being the expected BAFTA winner. Despite The Father’s growing momentum however, Colman lost that award to Youn Yuh-jung. That and a SAG win, now make the South Korean actress the clear frontrunner. Minari also just seems to be picking up a lot of steam, and something tells me the film isn’t going to go home empty-handed.
Who Should Win: Maria Bakalova
The acting categories are all so stacked this year, I can’t be mad at any of the front-runners. This includes Yuh-jung, who exemplifies everything good about the soul-stirring Minari. Still, I slightly prefer both Colman and Bakalova. The latter especially had a grueling role to take on—one that required crazy amounts of self-restraint with little room for mistakes that could be re-shot.
Not only was Bakalova able to swivel between comedy and earnestness with the ease of a professional; she also managed to outshine Borat himself in her very first acting gig.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night In Miami, The White Tiger
Who Will Win: The Father
I’d love to be proven wrong, but I just don’t see Nomadland winning this particular award, thanks to Zhao’s unconventional approach in adapting the non-fiction material. The Father on the other hand, seems like the more traditional win. Because the Ocars don’t usually tend to spread their awards out this much, another Nomadland victory wouldn’t entirely surprise me, but for now I’m betting against it.
Who Should Win: Nomadland
What can I say? This is clearly my favorite awards contender. The idea of real people playing fictionalized versions of themselves sounds daunting already. That Zhao did this so tactfully, is a whole other story.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman
There’s lots of love for Emerald Fennell’s bold and audacious revenge thriller, but in a year full of heavyweight contenders it seems to be losing several races it was originally expected to win. Still, Fennell’s script has continued to score with major awards bodies, and that Best Director nomination is only further proof that the Oscars are ready to recognize her one way or another.
It’s also worth noting that the only other frontrunner—Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7—has severely underperformed this awards cycle. If there’s one Oscar Promising Young Woman is almost guaranteed to take home, it’s this one.
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
As exciting as it would be to see something as ballsy and relevant as Promising Young Woman take home a screenplay award, my heart still belongs to Sound of Metal. Derek Cianfrance and Darius and Abraham Marder’s screenplay could easily have taken a generic, by-the-numbers approach towards its subject matter. Instead, this ended up being a poignant film about adjusting and letting go that stuck with me more than almost any other movie to come out during the pandemic.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
Who Will Win: Soul
No competition here; Pixar’s newest and most mature film to date has been collecting award statues all season. Aside from coming from a studio that pretty much guarantees it a victory, it’s easy to see how this existential, Kaufman-esque drama would appeal to older voters over the likes of Onward and Shaun the Sheep.
Who Should Win: Wolfwalkers
Although 2020 was a fantastic year for animation, Wolfwalkers was by far the best film in the medium. Soul is too demonstrative to stir me emotionally, but Wolfwalkers’ themes of persecution and othering amidst an unaccepting society are sure to feel universal to kids and adults alike. And in my humble opinion, it’s also the most visually astonishing film of the bunch.
Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Will Win: Nomadland
This really isn’t much of a contest. Any cynics still betting on Mank because of the black and white gimmick can rest assured, knowing Nomadland has been picking up all the major cinematography awards. Simply put, the film’s beautiful landscapes and sweeping scale leave little space for competition.
Who Should Win: Nomadland
What’s normally one of the most diverse and interesting categories to me, ended up being one of this year’s most lackluster. I’ve sung praises for Nomadland’s technical aspects though, and Joshua James Richards’ epic long shots are no exception. He’s certainly one of the few deserving nominees here.
Costume Design
Nominees: Emma., Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
When it comes to Costume Design, period pieces are always a safe bet. Emma. probably serves as Ma Rainey’s biggest threat, but it’s only up for a measly two awards. That alone is reason to believe that the Academy will pick the August Wilson adaptation over the Jane Austen one.
Who Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Despite the few costume changes that take place over the course of this movie, the amount of detail present in each one of Ann Roth’s gorgeous designs is remarkable. Those yellow shoes alone deserve the little gold man.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
If there was still any competition after this movie took home the PGA, its recent BAFTA win really sealed the deal. To win Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, you either have to meet the social/political climate á la Icarus, or be a visual spectacle, like Free Solo. This one’s the latter, and while I really thought Time could pull off a win amidst the ongoing racial justice movement, it just doesn’t look like the odds are in its favor.
Who Should Win: Time
Both Time and Romania’s Collective are so far above any of the other contenders, I’m frustrated at their meek chances of winning. Time in particular is one of the most original and infuriating documentaries to come out in the last couple of years. It's easy accessibility (on Prime and YouTube), means voters definitely had the ability to watch it, regardless of any special screeners.
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees: Colette, A Concerto Is A Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song For Latasha
Who Will Win: A Love Song For Latasha
This year and the last, unprecedented events forced Americans to reflect on our country’s difficult history with law enforcement and the criminal justice system. A heartbreaking retelling of Latasha Harlins’ brutal murder, A Love Song For Latasha couldn’t feel more relevant to our turbulent times.
Who Should Win: Do Not Split
Do Not Split is the kind of guerilla documentary that feels rare nowadays. In 35 minutes, it managed to captivate me more than any of the nominated shorts. As the debate on rioting and police brutality continues, this bite-sized doc about the Hong Kong protests feels true to the moment, and deserving of a win.
Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
The editing category is kind of a toss-up this year. While the Oscars seem to favor bold structure and excessive jump-cuts, they may also go with something like The Father, whose clean but rhythmic editing is essential in transporting viewers into the protagonist’s mind. Most recently, Sound of Metal’s BAFTA win really threw predictions off. But I’m playing it safe and going with Trial, because history repeats itself.
Who Should Win: The Father
While a Trial win wouldn’t bother me, there are other movies that I consider more deserving of the editing award. Perhaps most deserving is The Father, which drove the film’s tense environment and placed us in the protagonist’s psyche in a creative way.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?
Who Will Win: Another Round
Despite some notable snubs in this category (Bacurau, where are you?), Thomas Vinterberg’s crowd-pleaser was the predicted winner before nominees were even announced. The fact that he got a Best Director nom over—gasp—Aaron Sorkin, just seals the deal. International Film frontrunners just don’t get more obvious than this.
Who Should Win: Another Round
At once a euphoric celebration of life and a bleak examination of Denmark’s drinking culture, few films manage to maneuver their contradictory tones with such aplomb. Even if I consider Collective the “best” film in this category, Another Round’s rewatchability makes it my favorite of all the nominees.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma., Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
If there are two things the Academy loves, it’s period pieces and a good transformation. Ma Rainey’s hair and makeup team was tasked not just with transporting the entire cast to a different era, but also with turning one of today’s most recognizable actresses into the iconic August Wilson character. This included gold teeth, pencil eyebrows, a prosthetic chest, and gels and serums to make her look like she was perpetually soaked in sweat. Pinnochio was the only film giving it any competition but after several key losses, the race looks settled.
Who Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
I haven’t seen Pinnochio (which I’ve heard is full of incredible designs), so take this with a grain of salt. But what the Ma Rainey people did to Viola alone was a feat in itself.
Music (Original Score)
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
Who Will Win: Soul
Movies about music tend to win here, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have won every award that matters for composing Soul’s soundtrack. The fact that this movie even got nominated in technical categories outside of Animated Feature is further proof that the Academy loved it.
Who Should Win: Soul
I tend to go with memorability when it comes to evaluating the song categories. Aside from maybe Minari, Soul’s soundtrack is the only one that left a lasting impression on me. In fact, I consider the music to be one of the best parts of this technical marvel of a film.
Music (Original Song)
Nominees: “Fight For You” (Judas and the Black Messiah), “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “Husavic” (Eurovision Song Contest) “Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead), “Speak Now” (One Night In Miami…)
Who Will Win: “Speak Now”
It’s hard to distinguish any of the Best Original Song nominees this year. Well aside from “Io Si” and “Husavik” of course, but those don’t stand a chance. Still, it’s probably safest to bet on “Speak Now,” from the One Night In Miami soundtrack. Leslie Odom Jr. has had a great year, between this film (which also scored him an acting nomination), and the streaming success of Hamilton on Disney+. Don’t be surprised to see him take home the gold statue.
Who Should Win: “Io Si (Seen)”
The Academy really flubbed Best Original Song noms this time around. Maybe hoping for Brandi Carlile’s “Carried Me With You” and Sharon Van Etten’s “Staring at a Mountain” was foolish on my behalf, but for the Academy to ignore them in favor of three generic protest songs was a crime.
So, I’m going with Laura Pausini’s theme from The Life Ahead, because I grew up listening to her and because they snubbed Sophia Loren in the Best Actress category. No further explanations.
Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
Who Will Win: Mank
Though I predict Mank to underperform on Oscar night, I also believe it has a good shot at the Production Design award. The Academy tends to go with period pieces in this category, and as the most nominated film of the night, David Fincher’s dry historical epic is going to have to win something.
Who Should Win: Tenet
I maintain that 2020’s most ambitious and innovative action spectacle deserved to sweep the technical categories this year, but unfortunately it was only nominated for two awards. A production design win for its diverse and immersive settings would be both fair and warranted.
Short Film (Animated)
Nominees: Burrow, Genius Loci, If Anything Happens I Love You, Opera, Yes-People
Who Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
In a year of formidable contenders, Netflix’s 10-minute tearjerker sticks out by being both charming and timely. With subject matter as pressing as this, it would be surprising to see anything else take the prize.
Who Should Win: Genius Loci
Though it packs an emotional wallop, rusty animation and an awkward needle drop stop me from putting the frontrunner above most of its fellow nominees. The abstract Genius Loci however, is a feast for the senses that’s better felt than understood.
Short Film (Live-Action)
Nominees: Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, White Eye
Who Will Win: The Letter Room
I’ll admit I’m not usually up to date with the short films, but I had the pleasure of watching most of the nominees this year. The Letter Room seems to be getting the most buzz out of this category, and for good reason. Being well-paced and produced and having big names attached definitely boosts its chances.
Who Should Win: The Letter Room
The live-action short category is one hell of a mixed bag this time around. Fortunately, the frontrunner holds its own against the rest of the nominees with a story that’s both timely and charming. It also boasts a great performance from Oscar Isaac, who I love (much like everyone else).
Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
The Oscars love a good gimmick. Regardless of quality, they tend to favor films in which sound is essential to the storytelling here. While no musicals or war epics were nominated this time around, Sound of Metal’s unique method of putting viewers into the deaf protagonist’s shoes makes this a one-horse race.
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
It’s been a delight to see Sound of Metal become the dark horse this awards season. The sound in this film may as well be considered a supporting character that challenges our protagonist at every turn. The editing and mixing are subversive and impeccable, and I can't think of a more deserving nominee.
Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
Who Will Win: Tenet
Predictors seem torn between Tenet and The Midnight Sky, but Tenet has the edge in that it’s the only movie people A) saw, and B) liked. And despite the film’s disastrous Oscar campaign, it stands out by being the one of the few big movies to come out when people most longed for a good blockbuster.
Who Should Win: Tenet
Some have called Christopher Nolan’s newest film pretentious and confusing, but I considered it one of the few bright spots in an incredibly dull year. Regardless, the film’s elegant style and sleek visual effects helped make this some of the most innovative and impressive action in the last couple of years.